North Korea Points Nuclear Missiles at the United States Again
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North Korea'south 'Business organization as Usual' Missile Provocations
commentary
(Korea On Bespeak)
Kim Jong-un speaks to officials at the Defence Development Exhibition, in Pyongyang, Democratic people's republic of korea, in this undated photograph released on October 12, 2021
Photo by KCNA via Reuters
Democratic people's republic of korea in recent weeks has revved up its wheel of missile provocations—its go-to method of securing leverage against the Us and South korea in the on-again off-again nuclear negotiations. On September 11, it launched a long-range cruise missile described as a "strategic weapon of nifty significance"—implying a nuclear component. Less than a week later, Pyongyang test-fired a curt-range ballistic missile from a railcar platform. On September 28, Due north Korea launched a hypersonic missile, yet another "strategic weapon." The government also introduced a "missile fuel ampoule," a capability that allows missiles to be pre-fueled in the factory then stored in a set-to-launch state for years. Finally, on September xxx, the regime examination-fired an anti-aircraft missile and boasted of new technologies, including a twin-rudder control and a double-impulse flight engine.
This represents concern as usual from Kim Jong-united nations. That's non to downplay the gravity of the North Korea conundrum, only to signal out that the same factors consistently bulldoze Kim's pursuit of these weapons capabilities.
Cocky-preservation is high on the list. The Kim authorities underscores the defensive nature of its nuclear weapons and missile programs. Most recently, Democratic people's republic of korea'due south permanent representative to the United Nations, Kim Song, proclaimed his country's "righteous correct [to] self-defence" to develop, test, and produce new weapons, citing the U.S. and South Korean military alliance, Washington's "hostile policy" toward Pyongyang, and the U.Due south.-ROK joint military exercises "leveled at the DPRK."
Democratic people's republic of korea has the fourth-largest military in the world. On the Korean Peninsula, the Korean People's Army (KPA) outnumbers the U.S. and Due south Korean forces combined. And nevertheless the KPA is substantially outclassed in terms of engineering science and logistics, notwithstanding operating with inferior, decades-old Chinese and Russian equipment. Its major preparation exercises and massive parades of weapons and troops serve primarily as propaganda for the domestic population and to signal threats to adversaries. Merely Democratic people's republic of korea's military may be ill-prepared should tensions ever escalate into an armed confrontation.
The authorities'due south investment in nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs is an attempt to start that capabilities imbalance. By increasing potential costs to the U.s. and Republic of korea of escalating tensions, Pyongyang makes it more than difficult for the U.s. to carry out a preemptive strike against the Northward and enhances the Kim regime'southward survivability.
The recent spate of weapons tests is as well intended to examination the U.Southward. and South Korean governments' resolve. The Biden administration, while indicating it will have a different arroyo to North korea than the Trump administration did, has stopped short of issuing whatever policy specifics. The Kim regime may be trying to provoke the Biden administration to articulate its own "red lines," which will help Pyongyang make up one's mind its side by side brusque-term moves.
By increasing potential costs to the U.Southward. and Southward Korea of escalating tensions, Pyongyang makes information technology more than difficult for the U.S. to bear out a preemptive strike confronting the North and enhances the Kim regime'due south survivability.
Share on TwitterThe North is also keenly enlightened that Southward Korean President Moon Jae-in's term is ending and has used that to its reward. By dangling the prospect of inter-Korean peace and reconciliation, information technology has motivated the Moon assistants to accept a proactive and voluntary office in bridging the Washington-Pyongyang policy separate over the North's nuclear weapons program. For case, Kim Yo-jong—Kim Jong-un's sis and counselor—lauded Moon's calls for an terminate-of-war announcement, calling it an "interesting and beauteous" thought. Yet, the regime reminded Seoul that sure weather condition would need to be fulfilled beginning, namely fixing Seoul's "double-dealing attitudes," prejudice, and hostility. The North'due south restoration of inter-Korean advice lines—55 days after unilaterally suspending the channel in protestation of the U.S.-ROK joint military exercises—can exist seen equally another "carrot" Pyongyang has laid out to entice the Moon assistants in its remaining months in role.
Pyongyang's goading seems to have struck a chord among some officials in Seoul. Foreign Government minister Chung Eui-yong in his pull-aside talks October five with Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the need for an cease-of-war declaration as a "conviction-edifice measure" to appoint the Kim regime. Chung on a separate occasion said that the time is ripe to consider easing sanctions on Northward Korea for the sake of engagement—despite the authorities'due south ongoing nuclear development and missile testing. In a similar vein, Seoul's Unification Minister Lee In-young vowed to push for inter-Korean talks before the end of this year.
North Korea's saber-rattling could help it smoke out valuable information from the Biden administration, and information technology's non creating any setbacks with Seoul.
Share on TwitterIn other words, North korea's saber-rattling could help it smoke out valuable information from the Biden administration, and information technology'due south not creating any setbacks with Seoul. So "business as usual" might exist currently working for the government.
This leads to a couple of takeaways. Offset, information technology underscores the consistency in Pyongyang's strategy and ultimate goals vis-à-vis the Us and Republic of korea. The authorities likely sees its weapons capabilities as an constructive deterrent confronting hypothetical U.S. attacks and a reliable tool to intimidate its regional neighbors.
At the same time, it's possible that Democratic people's republic of korea's behavior has remained unchanged because it has non been commensurately and judiciously challenged by the The states, Due south Korea, or the international customs. Unless Pyongyang perceives information technology will incur greater costs for its aggressions, it will likely continue to rely on nuclear weapons and missile evolution as its way of communicating with the exterior world.
The North Korea trouble may necessitate constructive punitive measures such equally sanctions, diplomatic rebuke, and a calling out of Kim Jong-united nations's defiant man rights violations. Simply it also may require consistency and bang-up awareness of the 2d- and third-order implications of U.Due south. policy choices. Progress would probable require greater bilateral and regional cooperation on related problems, such as N Korea'due south reliance on cyberattacks, illegal ship-to-ship transfers and other illicit revenue streams, and humanitarian challenges.
In but a few days, North Korea volition be marker the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korea Workers' Party. Information technology is possible that Pyongyang will use the occasion to demonstrate boosted weapons capabilities to its watchful international audience. This practise, of course, will exist "business equally usual." The important question is, How will the United States and S Korea choose to respond to another Northward Korean provocation?
Soo Kim is a policy annotator at the RAND Corporation and an adjunct instructor at American University. Her research interests include the Korean Peninsula, Russia, Indo-Pacific strategy, near-peer competition, decisionmaking, propaganda, and the intelligence community. She served equally an annotator in the Cardinal Intelligence Agency (CIA) and also worked at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
This commentary originally appeared on Korea On Bespeak on October 12, 2021. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional person expertise and often on their peer-reviewed enquiry and analysis.
Source: https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/10/north-koreas-business-as-usual-missile-provocations.html
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